For the record, here's what my analysis boiled down to:
He kills my worm that is out in the open, with a pretty easy Bazooka shot, thus conserving his much more valuable Homing Pigeon, and keeping enough of the girder to allow "Tobi" to climb up/left on a future turn. He retreats out of range of most types of strikes and most other weapons.
I place a Girder at 24:39 that prevents his worm "Tobi" from being able to get over to my worm with any wind other than -10 (full blue wind). Because if I killed "*Jule" with one of my strikes, it'd be quite likely "Tobi" would be able to get over and kill me on the next turn. And to kill "Tobi" reliably, I'd need to move my worm into a much more vulnerable position (or use my rope).
(On the other hand, if I used my rope, and avoided collecting the leftmost crate, I would have time to use the Shotgun to win immediately. But I very much doubt I would have taken the chance on this "rope and hope" move, and even if I did, I might not have had the forethought to avoid collecting the leftmost crate to save time.)
He places a Girder that counters that, allowing his worm "Tobi" to get to me with any wind not further to the right than +1 red wind.
I fire a Carpet Bomb on my turn that begins at 25:18, and what this ends up doing is crucial to the outcome of the game. This attack can remove the possibility of his being able to get over to my worm with any wind if I'm lucky, but it can also fail to do that, in which case he can get to my worm with any wind of +1 red or further left (i.e., with +2 to +10 red he still wouldn't be able to get to me). Or if I'm only moderately lucky, the Carpet Bomb can make it so that he needs some fairly strong blue wind to get to me. I haven't yet calculated the odds on this, but it's clearly not going to be a high enough chance of a win for me to have the disconnection counted as my win. (Especially if you also consider that it would be possible for me to aim the Carpet Bomb badly and not even kill "*Jule" with it, though with the aim I tried first, and most of the aims I tried thereafter, it was guaranteed to at least kill that one worm regardless of randomness, because one of the two leftmost carpets scores a direct hit before bouncing.)
vesuvio's disconnection was at 23:21, so the following replays pick up at that point: