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March 29, 2024, 07:01 AM

Game #231937, reported by Deadcode, Viewed 1251 Time(s)

TRL #30
Singles
May 01, 2022, 12:07 AM
Winner
Deadcode
United States CKC DOS
Below Average 1382 in TRL: Team17 before the game. Gained 49|49 points
Loser
Zalo the moler
Mexico MOLCR
Reasonable 1585 in TRL: Team17 before the game. Lost 42|49 points
  

Information Game scheme: TRL: Team17
Watch The Game Replay(s):
Downloaded 47 time(s).
Game Awards
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Game Map(s)

Random generated map by the game.
1920 x 696, LEV, 0.04 KB, Downloaded 1 time(s)

Game Chat(s)
[Deadcode] oopsie
[GonZaLO] ops
[GonZaLO] I always make life more complicated than it needs to be :D
[Deadcode] vn
[GonZaLO] ty
[Deadcode] hehe
[Deadcode] aww
[Deadcode] weee
[Deadcode] lol
[GonZaLO] = )
[GonZaLO] no threat anymore
[GonZaLO] I need to see that slow mo
[Deadcode] went farther than you expected, right?
[Deadcode] aw
[GonZaLO] yeah
[GonZaLO] come on :/ not now
[GonZaLO] lagz once again

Author Topic: Game #231937, reported by Deadcode  (Read 1278 times)

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Offline Zalo the moler

Game #231937, reported by Deadcode
« on: May 01, 2022, 12:46 AM »
12:53 - That is when me or Deadcode diconnected. My plan was to eventually use Scales + Armageddon. At 12:53 I would have taken all the time left to block myself from "Out of bounds" worm, by putting long vertical girder on his bottom right, with 3:00 min left to Sudden Death. I had 7 Girders which is more than enough to continuously settle singular and double blocks, slowly moving down to the bottom left, up to the moment when Deadcode loses his Worm Select and ability to consistently break through my walls. On 1st such a turn I would have used Scales, making my worm extremely healthy, and then even if Deadcode would attempt to break through, I could still use armageddon during which all Deadcode's worms would have been very weak.

Deadcode on the other hand continues having his negative habit of "assuming" that he would have my worm exposed for rope + banana kill and now he is taking his 2nd Free win from me, after he already took 1st free win a few weeks ago when I also had 150 hp worm and plenty of girders.

It's my last game with this individual. Him not losing a single turn to continuously break through to my worm, being so close to SD, with me having 7 girders is just extremely unlikely. I doubt Deadcode would have been prepared for my Scales in the first place, to dig into my worm at all costs. Free win is just a robbery in that case.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2022, 01:15 AM by GonZaLO »

Offline Lupastic

Re: Game #231937, reported by Deadcode
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2022, 01:08 AM »
maybe we could play a different scheme for the next TRL season finally xd

Offline Deadcode

Re: Game #231937, reported by Deadcode
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2022, 04:16 AM »
12:53 - That is when me or Deadcode diconnected. My plan was to eventually use Scales + Armageddon. At 12:53 I would have taken all the time left to block myself from "Out of bounds" worm, by putting long vertical girder on his bottom right, with 3:00 min left to Sudden Death. I had 7 Girders which is more than enough to continuously settle singular and double blocks, slowly moving down to the bottom left, up to the moment when Deadcode loses his Worm Select and ability to consistently break through my walls. On 1st such a turn I would have used Scales, making my worm extremely healthy, and then even if Deadcode would attempt to break through, I could still use armageddon during which all Deadcode's worms would have been very weak.

Deadcode on the other hand continues having his negative habit of "assuming" that he would have my worm exposed for rope + banana kill and now he is taking his 2nd Free win from me, after he already took 1st free win a few weeks ago when I also had 150 hp worm and plenty of girders.

Your opportunities for girdering yourself in, separated from rope access by all of my worms, were quite minimal. You would have had to go underneath Out of bounds, and it would not have been hard at all for me to break in, because Out of bounds was right there with access to whatever girder you made. Each time you added a girder you would have to reduce the amount of space you had access to. And Sudden Death was 3:44 away, meaning I'd be able to select that same worm to break through each one of your barriers for a large number of girders. If you managed to keep doing that, waiting out your entire turn time, until Sudden Death, it would mean you'd have had to use 5 girders, and your lair would be considerably shrunken by that time, behind all the layers of broken girders.

Either that or you would have had to rope over to somewhere else and girder yourself in there. But you couldn't do that in the chamber with the Sheep Launcher and Homing Pigeon crates, because the opening was too large to be blocked with a girder. The only two sensible areas where you could have done it were the crevice to the right of the Sheep Launcher crate, or the crevice above Infinite Loop. Both of which were very small and almost certain not to have any crate drops. And if you did that, you'd have used up your rope. And yet still I could just teleport one of my worms inside, and you wouldn't be able to kill it immediately. Your only option at that point would be to girder-block that worm, but it would be easy to break through and you'd rapidly run out of space to even place girders in the small crevice.

You said you thought maybe you would have been able to do a double-block at some point, but I doubt that. As for when Sudden Death came about, I could just teleport inside your blocked-off area, likely possible to do in a spot where if you managed to kill me, it would open the girder. You almost certainly would never get a chance to use both the Scales and the Armageddon.

As for the Armageddon, my worm Infinite Loop was in a rather safe spot, likely to survive (and he'd be my first worm to get a turn after SD started, so he'd be the one I'd teleport inside your lair, where he'd be approximately just as likely as you to survive the Armageddon). Dangling Pointer was in a spot where he would likely be hurt badly, and if you'd used Scales before it, almost certainly die. Out of bounds was likely to not be hit at all by the Armageddon. So the chances are very high that I would have had at least one alive worm to rope over and use the Banana Bomb on you, and likely two worms, in which case I could just sacrifice one of them to make the Banana Bomb do 400ish hp of damage (whereas your worm would have had 265 hp after using Scales, or less if done after SD started) – not that I'd probably need to, as you'd at that point probably be very close to the ocean level.

It's my last game with this individual. Him not losing a single turn to continuously break through to my worm, being so close to SD, with me having 7 girders is just extremely unlikely. I doubt Deadcode would have been prepared for my Scales in the first place, to dig into my worm at all costs. Free win is just a robbery in that case.

I never would have agreed to play with you until after I had implemented recovery-from-disconnection, except that you joined my game hosted in #AG (with the title "T17 1vs1") – which I hosted without any expectation whatsoever that you would show up – and you expressed a strong desire to play. This caught me off-guard. If you had asked me on Discord, I would have said no, not until I've implemented recovery-from-disconnection. The lobby chat:

Quote
[2022-04-30 22.00.26] [Deadcode] Hmmm I'm not up for TRL right now, can we do funners?
[2022-04-30 22.00.26] [GonZaLO] 1 min brb
[2022-04-30 22.00.32] [GonZaLO] ahhh not really = (
[2022-04-30 22.00.48] [GonZaLO] I need a few matches more to qualify for POs
[2022-04-30 22.01.35] [Deadcode] Well
[2022-04-30 22.01.36] [Deadcode] hmmm
[2022-04-30 22.01.43] [Deadcode] ok
[2022-04-30 22.01.58] [Deadcode] though I wanted to add recovery-from-disconnection before playing our TRLs
[2022-04-30 22.03.00] [GonZaLO] wait
[2022-04-30 22.03.06] [GonZaLO] so it's actually possible?
[2022-04-30 22.03.09] [GonZaLO] to have something like this?
[2022-04-30 22.03.15] [Deadcode] Yep, but not yet, haven't implemented it yet
[2022-04-30 22.03.20] [GonZaLO] lets play ranked then?
[2022-04-30 22.03.34] [Deadcode] TRL
[2022-04-30 22.03.36] [GonZaLO] okay

And BTW, you're supposed to include your disconnections when posting ranked results (reporting multiple replays at once), just like how draws are included. Yet you never do this, and I consider that to be very dishonest.



Anyway, I've now tried various scenarios. In some of them you do actually win, but in most of them I win. If you had shown a better attitude, I would probably have been willing to change my mind about this and ask MonkeyIsland to remove this win without any further exploration of scenarios. But you've shown such a nasty attitude, I don't particularly want to play with you ever again either, and thus I don't particularly feel inclined to throw away this win.

We will have to play if we're paired in the playoffs, though. So...



I'm going to try to implement online-continue-from-replay this week. If I manage to do it, I challenge you to continue this game with me. If you manage to win or draw, I'll ask MonkeyIsland to delete my win. If you win, you can then report it as your win. Of course, it won't be like a real continue-from-disconnection; we've both know each others' weapon inventories, and I've had a chance to try some scenarios with TA while you haven't, so it's not particularly ideal or fair. But playing against someone who disconnects as often as you is far from ideal or fair, too. It's a really ugly situation and there's currently no really good solution. We really should not have played before I have implemented continue-from-disconnection.

I would go as far as to conjecture that you probably get a certain winning edge from your frequency of disconnections. It wears down the opponent psychologically, having to deal with your disconnections. I don't think it's at all fair to always throw those games out when the disconnector wasn't 100% certain to lose.

If the situation were reversed, and I was the one who disconnected in a scenario like this, I would be happy to let you take the win. So, I really do believe your attitude about this has been quite nasty.

Anyway, here's a way the game could have gone after your disconnection. It's just one example, the first one I tried, with no luck manipulation or retries. You actually could have roped and Dragon Balled Infinite Loop at 19:37. In that case your chances might be pretty decent. Of course, I don't know that I would have done that with Infinite Loop. A girder seems to be a good thing to do there instead (at 18:54).
« Last Edit: May 01, 2022, 06:36 AM by Deadcode »

Offline Senator

Re: Game #231937, reported by Deadcode
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2022, 12:38 PM »
Here's a replay based on what DC did and a few other scenarios

Offline Zalo the moler

Re: Game #231937, reported by Deadcode
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2022, 09:54 PM »
Here's a replay based on what DC did and a few other scenarios

seriously Senator...? Do you really think Deadcode would have uploaded any replay in which he is dead? You know that he wouldn't, I know that, even Dream knows that. Stats are literally all that this guy cares about. Many of his moves there are completely absurd. It proves to me that this guy is clueless about the most basic decision making that I would follow. He is only tough in "theory", playing chess with his own self, and then in practice he would lose 3 matches in a row. In one of his replays he even teleports underneath to me, on the slope next to the water :D not even knowing for sure what weapons I have, yeahhhhh.... I wanna see that :D Pffff, he would NEVER do such a crazy decision, and everybody who has played against him perfectly knows that. Before my post he even claimed that there would have not been any chance for me to use scales + arma in the first place, before he realised it was a silly thing to say, considering the incoming SD. By playing on time and pulling game down to SD I was 20% likely to lose, 20% to win and 60% likely to pull a draw. Good luck getting your cheap points in further games from other people, and playing chess with yourself, Deadcode.

Offline Senator

Re: Game #231937, reported by Deadcode
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2022, 10:13 PM »
Are you talking about the replays I attached? Those are mine.

The first replay shows what could have happened if Deadcode had done what he did in his replay and you had played it more optimally.

The other replays show how Deadcode could have played that situation more optimally and what could have happened after that. That's my review of the situation.

edit: I should add that in those replays I played knowing what weapons both players had. They might not be optimal moves when you don't have all that information. For example in two of the replays all Deadcode's worms were piled and exposed to a donkey. The second replay is questionable because of that. In the fourth replay Deadcode could have tossed a nade to open the girder.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2022, 10:57 PM by Senator »

Offline Deadcode

Re: Game #231937, reported by Deadcode
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2022, 04:15 AM »
GonZaLO has chosen to double down on with being rude and a bad sport. He's shown his true colors; so be it. This confirms my earlier impression of him, when playing the TRL Season 29 playoffs; he was gloating quite smugly in the chat, showing himself to be a bad sport when winning. And now he has shown himself to be a bad sport by way of denying he had a high likelihood of losing.

I withdraw my proposal to continue this game live online (in the case that I could have implemented it in a build soon enough); it was a bad idea anyway, as it would require either giving him a private build that he doesn't deserve, or publically releasing a build that would essentially be scaled-down TA build. Implementing the replay-continuation-online would be easy, but a week or two is not anywhere near enough time to implement and debug the security/protection against abuse of the replay-continuation feature. I do however plan to try implementing recovery-from-disconnection in time for the Season 30 TRL playoffs. This would be done by waiting for and allowing disconnected players to reconnect, instead of resuming from the replay file, to avoid potential abuse. (As such, it would only be able to recover from disconnections, not power failures or crashes.)

[Edit: I neglected to calculate the chances for draws when writing this last night. Now added. So as you can see, GonZaLO's wild guess of being 60% likely to pull a draw is not even close.]

FWIW, I made the replay 2022-05-01 04.40.21 {1 - non-TA possible play @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame during a night when I had a headache and slight light-headedness from the stale air caused by keeping my windows closed for many hours due to there being lots of nasty campfire smoke outside. When having played the TRLs with GonZaLO earlier that morning, however, I was in reasonably good condition breathing fresh air (and I make a point of only playing ranked games in those conditions). So this replay (and the whole session in which I analyzed it a bit further) doesn't really represent my best mental effort.
The probability of the Armageddon in that replay (done at 23:08.46) resulting a win for blue was about 13.8%, with a 11.5% chance of a draw. If blue delayed using it until a later turn, or took better previous turns, the probability would increase.

Senator, thanks for doing your tests. Here are the approximate probabilities of the Armageddons you did winning the game for blue:
23.0% blue win (9.65% draw) at 3:00.34 in 2022-05-01 11.56.33 [Offline Round 2] DC vs GonZaLO 1.WAgame
17.5% blue win (11.5% draw) at 3:51.08 in 2022-05-01 12.04.51 [Offline Round 2] DC vs GonZaLO 2.WAgame
11.3% blue win (5.34% draw) at 4:10.80 in 2022-05-01 12.10.46 [Offline Round 2] DC vs GonZaLO 3.WAgame - better than in my previous posted replay
22.5% blue win (4.89% draw) at 3:18.94 in 2022-05-01 12.25.02 [Offline] DC vs GonZaLO 4.WAgame
This seems to show that probably only the plays in your third replay were potentially more optimal for red. There is also the possibility in the first replay for blue to delay using the Armageddon, potentially increasing the chance of it working, by roping over and Girder-blocking the other worm.

But these were not a true continuation of the game but rather an approximated mockup. The presence of crates, oildrums, etc., changes things. I recreated your third replay (with a slight modification – my worm on the left places a Girder instead of just skipping go). Note that you were off by a turn of SD (as well as other differences).
20.6% blue win (11.5% draw) at 21:48.48 in * 2022-05-03 04.28.35 {8 - possible play (based on Senator's) @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame (136.62 kB - downloaded 14 times.)
So, apparently it was less optimal play than mine. (Note that the Armageddon in this replay file shows a win for blue, i.e. the thing with a 20.6% chance happened, which contradicts GonZaLO's claim that I'd never post a replay where he wins.)

Anyway, I've now analyzed this endgame in depth. Here is the optimized play I came up with:
* 2022-05-03 02.38.49 {possible endgame @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame (150.28 kB - downloaded 9 times.)
There were four opportunities to use the Armageddon. The approximate probabilities of that resulting in a win for blue:
0.92% blue win (0.13% draw) at 20:01.62
0.58% blue win (0.00% draw) at 20:45.80
1.65% blue win (0.05% draw) at 21:50.16
15.4% blue win (6.38% draw) at 22:55.62 (last and best chance)
Here is a replay of the 15.4% chance happening (a win for blue): * 2022-05-03 04.49.44 {possible endgame @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame (144.43 kB - downloaded 7 times.)

This is indeed more optimal for red than my original replay. Blue could have done some better moves in my original replay, resulting in a 21.4% chance of winning (8.03% chance of a draw) from Armageddon: * 2022-05-03 05.39.10 {possible play @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame (148.72 kB - downloaded 6 times.)
So I guess Senator's is marginally better at 20.6% (but still worse than the 15.4%).

On the other hand, red could have done some better turns too in a variation of my original replay, especially with some decent wind – here is a scenario even more optimal for red than the above (assuming blue can't do something much better under these circumstances):
* 2022-05-03 06.51.23 {possible endgame @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame (155.97 kB - downloaded 13 times.)
5.98% blue win (0.09% draw) at 19:54.96
4.59% blue win (0.09% draw) at 20:41.70
2.78% blue win (0.22% draw) at 22:19.30
5.09% blue win (1.20% draw) at 22:49.86
8.25% blue win (7.00% draw) at 24:07.66 - the replay file shows this 8.25% chance win for blue happening
12.1% blue win (3.66% draw) at 24:07.66 - if traversing to the left side (wind allowing) to use the Armageddon: 2022-05-03 18.57.38 {possible endgame @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame


I'm guessing, from GonZaLO's tone, that he may think I tend to make gameplay choices that he considers so dumb he'd never make them himself. But if so, he is seeing that through the lens of his own playing style, ignoring that I probably make many other types of decisions, and types of moves, better than he would. It likely balances out much more than he apparently thinks, but I guess we'll never know because GonZaLO refuses to play a statistically sound number of games with me, choosing instead to rest on his laurels that are quite possibly just a result of being lucky.

And for that matter, we may never know how good he really is when playing against other players, because he has the unfair advantage of disconnecting often, not only voiding those games but concealing them from the public by reporting only the non-disconnected replays. Even if he upgrades to a better ISP, it would take asking each player individually to see if he's really stopped having lots of disconnections, because he refuses to let his disconnected games be a matter of public record. (Adding recovery-from-disconnection to WA would of course fix this, but that will be too late for the bulk of this season of TRL T17, and possibly too late even for the playoffs.)
« Last Edit: May 03, 2022, 07:04 PM by Deadcode »

Offline Deadcode

Re: Game #231937, reported by Deadcode
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2022, 04:41 PM »
But these were not a true continuation of the game but rather an approximated mockup. The presence of crates, oildrums, etc., changes things. I recreated your third replay (with a slight modification – my worm on the left places a Girder instead of just skipping go). Note that you were off by a turn of SD (as well as other differences).
20.6% blue win (11.5% draw) at 21:48.48 in 2022-05-03 04.28.35 {8 - possible play (based on Senator's) @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame
So, apparently it was less optimal play than mine. (Note that the Armageddon in this replay file shows a win for blue, i.e. the thing with a 20.6% chance happened, which contradicts GonZaLO's claim that I'd never post a replay where he wins.)

An additional consideration here is that blue could use Armageddon one turn earlier, at 21:21 instead of 21:48, and hope for Dangling Pointer being the only surviving worm and remaining trapped. This has an approximately 21/402 (5.2%) chance of happening, but in about 57% of those cases, Dangling Pointer can still just blowtorch out, and Amnesio would be faced with the only potentially winning move being to rope out through a very low ceiling, which while theoretically possible, is next to impossible for a human. So the chance is really only about 9/402 (2.2%) to have a chance at winning, where meteors opened a path for Amnesio to escape using rope in a humanly-possible way. But in about half of these, red can still use a suicide Banana Bomb to have a good chance of pulling a draw, and in the other half, it's still possible, just unlikely, for such a Banana to pull a draw.

The base chances for Armageddon at 21:21.02 in this scenario are 14.5% blue win (0.4% draw). Since the chances above pull from the remaining 85.1%, this chances the chances to, to be generous, approximately 16.0% blue win (1.9% draw). That is, taking this into consideration has a close to negligible effect on the probabilities, and that's still only if blue actually tried for it.


But for the following scenario, with a tight block on Dangling Pointer, it has a relatively big effect:
On the other hand, red could have done some better turns too in a variation of my original replay, especially with some decent wind – here is a scenario even more optimal for red than the above (assuming blue can't do something much better under these circumstances):
2022-05-03 06.51.23 {possible endgame @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame
5.98% blue win (0.09% draw) at 19:54.96
4.59% blue win (0.09% draw) at 20:41.70
2.78% blue win (0.22% draw) at 22:19.30
5.09% blue win (1.20% draw) at 22:49.86
8.25% blue win (7.00% draw) at 24:07.66 - the replay file shows this 8.25% chance win for blue happening
12.1% blue win (3.66% draw) at 24:07.66 - if traversing to the left side (wind allowing) to use the Armageddon: 2022-05-03 18.57.38 {possible endgame @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame

The Armageddon at 20:41.70 is what gives a better chance of blue victory. There is a 6.81% chance of Dangling Pointer being the only surviving red worm (with blue surviving), and due to the tight block, I don't have to manually review all the possibilities to see in which ones he is freed, because it's extremely unlikely. And due to Amnesio being in a much safer position after this Armageddon, there's a negligible chance of blue being able to use a Banana Bomb to pull a draw. So this essentially changes the probabilities of Armageddon on this turn to:

11.4% blue win (0.09% draw) at 20:41.70
« Last Edit: May 04, 2022, 04:47 PM by Deadcode »

Offline Corujão

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Re: Game #231937, reported by Deadcode
« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2022, 08:37 PM »
This also happened to me and Albus in the final of the T17 Cup. We were winning and the game suddenly crashed. that was very strange