The Ultimate Site of Worms Armageddon
One-Boards => Schemes => Topic started by: Kradie on August 18, 2021, 03:42 PM
-
If you can think of more schemes I can add it to the poll.
-
Among these 4, I would say it's team17. And, in my opinion, it involves even more luck if it's played on island map.
-
Poll: Team17
Other: Comet Dodging
-
comet dodging, russian roulette schemes : ]
-
comet dodging, russian roulette schemes : ]
Yes, and kaos too if you get just laser sight in utilities :D
-
nono
-
team17 and it is easily statistically backed up with historical league results. Winning percentages and top ranks achieved by the top 5 all time in team17 are lower than the other schemes. The largest sample size is from pre rank reset, I don’t know how to access those results, but top players averaged about 65% win rate if memory serves. other players easily topped that in other schemes, Komo’s all time 1v1 record in bng is about 97%, by comparison. Roper has variance but not what team17 has, by a long shot.
-
comet dodging, russian roulette schemes : ]
Yes, and kaos too if you get just laser sight in utilities :D
relatable...
-
team17 and it is easily statistically backed up with historical league results. Winning percentages and top ranks achieved by the top 5 all time in team17 are lower than the other schemes. The largest sample size is from pre rank reset, I don’t know how to access those results, but top players averaged about 65% win rate if memory serves. other players easily topped that in other schemes, Komo’s all time 1v1 record in bng is about 97%, by comparison. Roper has variance but not what team17 has, by a long shot.
You made me curious so i've spent the past half an hour doing some research:
Top 10 Average Win Percentage:
- Shopper - 80.99%
- BnG - 80.793%
- TTRR - 80.254%
- Hysteria - 77.693%
- Roper - 77.08%
- Elite - 75.687%
- WxW - 71.964%
- Team17 - 68.189%
Top 5 Average Win Percentage:
- BnG - 89.266%
- Shopper- 82.918%
- WxW - 80.99%
- TTRR - 80.404% (Error 404 - Ryan not found!)
- Hysteria - 80.402%
- Elite - 78.916%
- Roper - 78.848%
- Team17 - 70.592%
Top 3 Average Win Percentage:
- BnG - 94.61%
- Hysteria - 86.856%
- Shopper - 85.03%
- Elite - 84.243%
- WxW - 83.166%
- Roper - 80.776%
- TTRR - 78.396%
- Team17 - 72.123%
Screenshots of top ten in each scheme from the first era of TUS, in alphabetical order:
BnG:
(https://i.imgur.com/UuBkVbf.png)
Elite:
(https://i.imgur.com/LYucpaQ.png)
Hysteria:
(https://i.imgur.com/oFCnvZl.png)
Roper:
(https://i.imgur.com/zk5f1vt.png)
Shopper:
(https://i.imgur.com/asZEGUR.png)
Team17:
(https://i.imgur.com/Pkmvu92.png)
TTRR:
(https://i.imgur.com/t2USQhv.png)
WxW:
(https://i.imgur.com/oV9Np2u.png)
-
Nice analysis, Dave! Weird to see shopper in top 3 ;d
-
I smell stats...
Nice approach, and excuse my rope-noobeness, but what could be causing the low win% in TTRR? is it luck? what is "luck" in TTRR? Could it be explained because top TTRR players are all very good but with a similar skill level while in BnG very few players are way above the skill level of the average player?.
Those % are highly influenced by the distribution of skills in the player base; a player base that has very few high-skilled players and a lot of average/low skilled players will definitely have a higher win ratio among the top players, compared to another player base of the same scheme where the skill level is more or less the same in the whole player base.
-
Nice analysis, Dave! Weird to see shopper in top 3 ;d
I smell stats...
Nice approach, and excuse my rope-noobeness, but what could be causing the low win% in TTRR? is it luck? what is "luck" in TTRR? Could it be explained because top TTRR players are all very good but with a similar skill level while in BnG very few players are way above the skill level of the average player?.
Those % are highly influenced by the distribution of skills in the player base; a player base that has very few high-skilled players and a lot of average/low skilled players will definitely have a higher win ratio among the top players, compared to another player base of the same scheme where the skill level is more or less the same in the whole player base.
Thanks Korydex & Dario.
I was very surprised to see Shopper so high, though after thinking about it more, it makes sense when you think about popularity, and the fact it's an allround league and people will pick schemes based on points and strengths/weaknesses.
So, I think you've nailed the most part on the head Dario.
barman and I obviously never played at the same time so we never played each other. The only reason barman and I were able to achieve such a high % in BnG is because there were only a few good BnG players active in TUS during our periods of activity.
TTRR, was a VASTLY more popular scheme than BnG, as you can see just by looking at the images the amount of Elite ranked players absolutely dwarf literally every other scheme, in fact the only other schemes to have any Elite ranked players was BnG and WxW.
League TTRR has a handful of players as good in League TTRR as barman and I were in League BnG:
Mablak, Statik, Ryan, Lordhound, SirJ.
In my eyes those are the top 5 TTRR players around the 2010-2016 era, a level above everyone else.
Mablak and SirJ didn't even play, Statik had a record of 38-0 which is great though very inactive, LordHound was very inactive with 38-8, Ryan was pretty inactive as well though still made the top 10 with 69-4.
Had these 5 guys played even a couple hundred games each during good activity, things would probably be even lower in TTRR.
Then you had people who were also really good:
barman, Sbaffo, blitzed, Dulek, franz, Masta, sm0k, lalo, daina, LukZ, f4st, Csongi, AduN, TOMT, Madden, yanme, s4li, Ray, FLori, NAiL, donnie(Kaleu), ShyGuy...
Then you had about a hundred or so people on the top end of average capable of having the odd really good turn and beating the really good players.
TTRR is one of the most popular schemes of all time versus BnG which is one of the least popular schemes of all time.
Not to mention although these are individual standings, it IS an Allround League, so each player gets 1 pick and will generally speaking pick what they believe they are stronger in, although there are a lot of players who just want to play top players, there was a lot of avoiding and carefully picking schemes because even though someone who is good could have an Elite rank, if Mablak suddenly decided to play, they wouldn't want to risk their points against someone that good who doesn't have a score than reflects their actual skill level.
From my perspective, the standings and statistics are a mess and don't truly reflect the actual player base and schemes properly in my opinion, though they still give you a little idea when talking about why Team17 is considered more luck based.
In a perfect world we'd be playing this like football leagues, where we would have thousands of players, and divisions with an absolute top Premier League for the best of the best. Everyone has to play everyone else like 2-3 times in a season. Then we'd see some solid results.
-
Solid breakdown Dave, I more or less agree with everything you said, bng is the greatest contrast because not many people show enthusiasm for it, most just played when it is picked, I played 100’s, if not thousands of bng games. Was able to go from relative noob to top 5 elite tier in a year or two. Very little luck variance. Ttrr is explained well with more robust and active competition.
The one statistic I would love to have and always wanted as it relates to luck is the percentage change in win rate when you place your worm first in elite. In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper. Out of all the allround schemes I have always felt like placing first in elite has the greatest effect on the game, having map control from the very beginning. I would guess it would be 3-7%, but without a large sample size the data would be useless. This sort of thing has always captured my attention, finite data that tells a story about gameplay over a longitudinal period.
-
The one statistic I would love to have and always wanted as it relates to luck is the percentage change in win rate when you place your worm first in elite. In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper. Out of all the allround schemes I have always felt like placing first in elite has the greatest effect on the game, having map control from the very beginning. I would guess it would be 3-7%, but without a large sample size the data would be useless. This sort of thing has always captured my attention, finite data that tells a story about gameplay over a longitudinal period.
I think having first turn is always an advantage in default schemes. Btw, I think that placement in Mole Shopper is more lucky than in Inter or T17, if you have more worms on top it's much easier to control the game.
-
In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper.
Actually in Roper it plays a big role because it's much easier to make a successful first turn with the bazooka when you start from the top of the map. If both players start from the top, the first player gets an easier first turn anyway because he can take a better hide after attacking.
-
Some schemes it's better to go last, TTRR & Big RR for example, as they can show you the map, and you can quickly optimize your turn by watching they they did and seeing how it can be improved.
On the other hand, maybe you're so good you can get such a good turn it puts the fear in them!
-
In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper.
Actually in Roper it plays a big role because it's much easier to make a successful first turn with the bazooka when you start from the top of the map. If both players start from the top, the first player gets an easier first turn anyway because he can take a better hide after attacking.
I don’t think I was specific enough, the luck of going first is nowhere near as impactful as the crate luck after it, so in terms of overall impact it is very low.
Was making the contrast with elite, where the first turn is luck based and is the only thing that swings the game luck-wise from that point on, so it is something that could be statistically quantified.
I would agree with your assessment that going first is better, but one unreachable crate later in the game would always sway the game more than going first.
-
I never had that much of a problem with crate rapes in roper. They can act as a equalizer to give the losing team a fighting chance. Bitter the crate may be but may be a necessary equalizer.
-
@Elite
I think many players don't know how to play when they go second. Like in Chess you can't just make mirror moves and expect to win. There's a few different ways to play as the second player. Some players such as FaD prefer to darkside and give the first player early map control, then attack from underneath with skunk / air strikes etc and finally open at the right moment. Other players such as VoK prefer to fight for the map control and take advantage of worm rotation and piling (aka telecow). An important thing in that strategy is also to have a worm that can girder block from a safe hide.
-
@Elite
I think many players don't know how to play when they go second. Like in Chess you can't just make mirror moves and expect to win. There's a few different ways to play as the second player. Some players such as FaD prefer to darkside and give the first player early map control, then attack from underneath with skunk / air strikes etc and finally open at the right moment. Other players such as VoK prefer to fight for the map control and take advantage of worm rotation and piling (aka telecow). An important thing in that strategy is also to have a worm that can girder block from a safe hide.
ahahah, could you also tell us about the strategies of other players, I must know their weak points ;D
-
ahahah, could you also tell us about the strategies of other players, I must know their weak points ;D
Can you rather tell us about those weak points?
It's important to know different ways of playing Elite so that you are not screwed when the map pick doesn't allow your usual forts style placements, for example.
-
imagine you are playing against a player and you know his weak point, for example accuracy (bng). accordingly, you will keep your distance from him to make it harder for him, and vice versa, you will aggressively play against the player with good accuracy. or you play always the same against everyone?
-
the better you know your opponent, the easier it is to win
-
Btw if we look at TRL, where most of the players knew what they were playing, the stats are slightly different. T17 average winrate increases by 2% and Roper by 3-4%.
https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/TRL-standings/rTeam17/
https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/TRL-standings/rRoper/
- TTRR - 80.404% (Error 404 - Ryan not found!)
There he is :D https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/TRL-standings/rTTRR/
-
- TTRR - 80.404% (Error 404 - Ryan not found!)
There he is :D https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/TRL-standings/rTTRR/
Wut, that link takes me to ZAR TRL lol?
-
- TTRR - 80.404% (Error 404 - Ryan not found!)
There he is :D https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/TRL-standings/rTTRR/
Wut, that link takes me to ZAR TRL lol?
Not sure why :d But here's the screenshot.
-
Yeah that looks right.
Shame SirJ aka rudolf289, blitzed, Statik and Mablak didn't play more games.
The win percentages all add up though based on the amount of games they played although i'm curious who beat Mablak twice, 80% seems very low, though to be fair 10 games isn't exactly active and warmed up.
-
Hello!
I'm terms of how high winning percentages are, there are a few more factors.
Is every game being reported?
If players agree to DoN then the all-round top players may be losing less games, or they may be denied wins in their strongest schemes because they lost the opponent's pick.
I think it depends on the player's mentality on schemes vs all round too.
Scheme specialists will probably have a really high win percentage. Certain schemes lend themselves to being specialist schemes due to unique skills required.
The high percentages could actually be due to opponents not wanting to play the scheme, and in some cases they "can't be bothered" rather than thinking they have no chance.
-
The one statistic I would love to have and always wanted as it relates to luck is the percentage change in win rate when you place your worm first in elite. In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper. Out of all the allround schemes I have always felt like placing first in elite has the greatest effect on the game, having map control from the very beginning. I would guess it would be 3-7%, but without a large sample size the data would be useless. This sort of thing has always captured my attention, finite data that tells a story about gameplay over a longitudinal period.
I was curious and went through Random00's TEL games :D
Started 335 rounds - win rate 85.97%
Didn't start 343 rounds - win rate 81.92%
I'd like to see stats from games between top players because in those games everyone knows the different strategies for when you go first/second and how to counter them.
-
The one statistic I would love to have and always wanted as it relates to luck is the percentage change in win rate when you place your worm first in elite. In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper. Out of all the allround schemes I have always felt like placing first in elite has the greatest effect on the game, having map control from the very beginning. I would guess it would be 3-7%, but without a large sample size the data would be useless. This sort of thing has always captured my attention, finite data that tells a story about gameplay over a longitudinal period.
I was curious and went through Random00's TEL games :D
Started 335 rounds - win rate 85.97%
Didn't start 343 rounds - win rate 81.92%
I'd like to see stats from games between top players because in those games everyone knows the different strategies for when you go first/second and how to counter them.
Truly great info, 4% difference, about what I expected, but I assume with lesser skilled players the first turn advantage would even equate to an even larger jump in win rate, but just a hypothesis. Would be nice if we could batch large amounts of replays, how did you gather this info?
-
Checked all 3053 EAC replays.
Games where player who started won: 1400.
Games where player who didn't start won: 1313.
319 games were ended with premature quit so it wasnt counted. Please don't quit early ppl :)