Hey guys!
The Norwegian season in soccer is about to kick off within a few weeks time, and some matches are already being played in the lower divisions. Many people believe that beating the bookmaker and making a profit on gambling is impossible. I want to show you throughout 2013 that this is utterly bullshit. Beating the bookmaker is possible when you play at odds which is incorrectly set and gives you value over time. I will even show you how you can make a profit of approximately 10 000 euros. So first of all, how do you find odds that is incorrectly set?
My friend is very interested in soccer, and especially Norwegian soccer. He knows everything there is to know about all the teams in the 2nd, 3rd and even 4th division in Norway. He has a wide network of contacts, and they provide him with information about injuries, suspensions, form and so on. He's also very familiar with the different types of venues. So, we bet on matches where WE have better knowledge then the bookmaker. This is lower league Norwegian games, and it is difficult for the oddssetters to get the information about changes in the team before we get it.
I had a bankrollmanagement project running throughout last season on our predictions. I wanted to check which type of management that was the most profitable, and risk of ruin equal to zero. I landed on the type "flat bet" in the end, where I bet 4% of the bankroll on each bet every time. Other type of strategies that were tested was Kelly, half kelly, 1/4 kelly and 1-10 units.
So, the bankroll I started with in this BRM-project was 10 000 NOK (Norwegian Kroner), which is about 1350 euros/1750 dollars. The goal for this year is to increase the roll in the range of ca 9400 euros/12300 dollars. To do so, it is highly important that this bankroll is not being withdrawn from. It is also important to have an account at Moneybookers or Neteller in order to transfer money quickly and safely from one bookmaker to another. You must also have accounts on Nordicbet, Betsafe, Unibet and Bet365. The first prediction I'm posting is a bet offered at Betsafe only.
Here is the first prediction:
Sport: Soccer
League: Norwegian Cupqualifiers
Match: Skotfoss-Herkules
Bet: Over 4.5 goals
Odds: 2.02
Bookmaker: Betsafe
Stake: 4%
Stake of bankroll: 54 euros/70 dollars
Date/time: 17.03.13 13.00
Home team Skotfoss played over 4.5 in 24 out of 26 matches last season. Herkules played over 4.5 in 14 out of 26 matches. Being offered this odds is a big surprise considering Skotfoss very weak defense. These two teams played in the same division last year, but Skotfoss relegated with clear margin and is now in the 4th division in Norway. The meetings last season ended 5-0 and 7-0 to Herkules. Herkules is not as strong as they were last season as they've lost a few players, but they're still far better then homeside. This is the first match of the season for both teams, we should expect lots of goals and 2.02 is well payed. I give this bet a 60% chance to win, and odds shouldn't be any higher then 1.7 here. I expect this odds to drop quick today and advice to play it as early as possible.
25% taxes is a lot? You'd have to pay 35.5% taxes with an income of 100 000 euro in Norway..
