Sorry for the late reply.

If you set "RubberWorm crate rate" to 1, the only conspicuous change will be that the crate collection counter is enabled (shown at the lower left of the screen).

In your example, with 30% weapon, 0% utility, 20% health, 50% no crate, and "RubberWorm crate rate" set to 2, that means that at beginning of every turn, the crate drop logic is applied 2 times.

That logic is: First add up those percentages. 30+0+20+50 = 100. With a sum of exactly 100, that means they are actual percentages. So for example:

• there's a 50%*50% = 25% chance that no crate falls at all
• there's a 30%*30% = 9% chance that 2 weapon crates fall
• there's a 30%*50% + 50%*30% = 30% chance that 1 weapon crate falls
• there's a 30%*20% + 20%*30% = 12% chance that 1 weapon crate and 1 health crate fall

But when using the "no crate" setting, the percentages don't have to add up to 100. Whatever they do add up to, is treated as meaning 100%.

So for example, 60% weapon, 0% utility, 40% health, 100% no crate would behave identically to 30% weapon, 0% utility, 20% health, 50% no crate.

My two worst failed moves in this game could have easily gone differently:

It was possible, but very hard, for me to win this with Sheep (playback at 28:00):

For the record, here's what my analysis boiled down to:

He kills my worm that is out in the open, with a pretty easy Bazooka shot, thus conserving his much more valuable Homing Pigeon, and keeping enough of the girder to allow "Tobi" to climb up/left on a future turn. He retreats out of range of most types of strikes and most other weapons.

I place a Girder at 24:39 that prevents his worm "Tobi" from being able to get over to my worm with any wind other than -10 (full blue wind). Because if I killed "*Jule" with one of my strikes, it'd be quite likely "Tobi" would be able to get over and kill me on the next turn. And to kill "Tobi" reliably, I'd need to move my worm into a much more vulnerable position (or use my rope).

(On the other hand, if I used my rope, and avoided collecting the leftmost crate, I would have time to use the Shotgun to win immediately. But I very much doubt I would have taken the chance on this "rope and hope" move, and even if I did, I might not have had the forethought to avoid collecting the leftmost crate to save time.)

He places a Girder that counters that, allowing his worm "Tobi" to get to me with any wind not further to the right than +1 red wind.

I fire a Carpet Bomb on my turn that begins at 25:18, and what this ends up doing is crucial to the outcome of the game. This attack can remove the possibility of his being able to get over to my worm with any wind if I'm lucky, but it can also fail to do that, in which case he can get to my worm with any wind of +1 red or further left (i.e., with +2 to +10 red he still wouldn't be able to get to me). Or if I'm only moderately lucky, the Carpet Bomb can make it so that he needs some fairly strong blue wind to get to me. I haven't yet calculated the odds on this, but it's clearly not going to be a high enough chance of a win for me to have the disconnection counted as my win. (Especially if you also consider that it would be possible for me to aim the Carpet Bomb badly and not even kill "*Jule" with it, though with the aim I tried first, and most of the aims I tried thereafter, it was guaranteed to at least kill that one worm regardless of randomness, because one of the two leftmost carpets scores a direct hit before bouncing.)

vesuvio's disconnection was at 23:21, so the following replays pick up at that point:

It was actually extremely likely that you would lose, vesuvio was simply winning there, and yet you still negotiated free win...

At 23:21 vesuvio gets highly favourable wind to Left. He has no choice but to fly with Tobi to 48hph Memory Leak, he kills him with green granade on the left side of head & fall damage (45 + ~6 hp), and he hides down below, exactly where the grave is sitting, having a perfect shelter and being nearly invincible there, even for carpet strike. Instead of Granade he could also try Bow (to left + to right for fall damage),

From now on you have 2 worms to kill. Both of them can kill you, since Jule has pigeon that would fly through. You can only kill Tobi, if you somehow get a favourable wind for your parachute. If you don't, then you cannot block him in any way whatsoever. Jule can also kill you any time with telecide. I would say that it was vesuvio who should be given free win if anyone.

It makes me wonder how many free wins have been out there, apart from you attempting to get Gold medal through free win even in TTL Play Offs final.

My decision to count this as a win was based on a very quick analysis of the situation. In the time following that, I felt a nagging feeling that it was the wrong decision.

So before even seeing that you wrote a reply here, I did an extensive analysis, and decided that it was not anywhere near to as likely a win as I had thought when giving it a quick look.

I doubt you'll believe me given your track record and general attitude, but I was going to ask MonkeyIsland to delete this win regardless of if anybody had replied here. I expect now you'll believe I'm only doing this now because you wrote a reply, but it has nothing to do with your reply (and I haven't even read your reply yet, except for its first and last sentences).

Yes please. Can't have too much TTL.

This is what I meant to do at 2:27... and it turns out it would have worked: