Lucky Roper [for MI, franz, Dub-c]

[Dub-c]

These numbers make me think that comparing the top 10 players' winning percentages is not a good idea to measure how does luck affect the scheme. Players who dominate their favorite schemes are a bad test sample.

Why? Why are they a bad test sample?

I would think the top 10 would be the best test sample since there skill is the highest and luck should play a smaller role.

How do you jump to the conclusion that looking at point distribution has any significance on luck factor? Would winning % not make a little more sense. The more the luck, the lower the winning percentage should be, right?

[barman]

The winning percentages: go to any overall scheme standings page (like this), sum up the number of won games from the top 10 players, divide by the sum of all games played.
The rating gain averages: go to the recent games from any scheme (like this), sum up the overall rating changes from the first 100 games excluding the playoff ones, divide by 100.

[Dub-c]

I don't see how rating change holds any significance of luck factor. Could you explain this further.

[franz]

This is not a complaining topic, I just tried to show replays where crates decided much (MI was interested in such replays). Here is franz vs Csongi PO game: https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/game-109463/ Yes, it wasn't a flawless game, but crates really made Csongi's life easier. It looks like people who are sure there is no luck in roper will always find some mistakes which dramatically affected the game. And I guess in the perfect roper game players should predict crates positions, because there are no random numbers, they are pseudo-random and generated by strict algorithms

MI wanted my reaction to this game too (specifics), so I'll say it here:  I still played like crap, and I'm not happy with my play. I put it on me more than anything (like crates). my 1st turn: awful grab, my 3rd turn: awful climb, 5th turn: awful escape, 8th turn: bad/slow grab (attacked same crate earlier), 11th turn: awful grab again.

[barman]

I don't see how rating change holds any significance of luck factor. Could you explain this further.

When you face someone who's better that you (thus higher rated), it's natural that you will need some luck in order to win (by luck I mean any unintentional actions that bring you closer to winning, my definition is not limited to random crate drops). On the contrary, you will probably need some bad luck in order to lose against a weak (lower rated) opponent. Therefore we can see a simple relationship between the potential number of points you can win/lose and the amount of (bad) luck deciding about the outcome of the match.
I think that such relationship is less evident in the win/lose ratio statistics, because they provide no distinction between winning against strong and weak opponent. Take MonkeyIsland as an example, he's a top wormer without doubt but his overall winning percentage is rather low (57.78%), because the considerable number of his opponents are other very strong players. On the other side, someone who prefers playing against weak opponents will probably have a good winning ratio coupled with a lower rating.

[sock]

[avirex]

i think its funny how anyone can deny there is a major luck factor in rope games...


and when discussed, or shown proof they say "well, that was not a perfect game, so does not count"



there is no such thing as a perfect game, and there never will be.


in an elite game if a lesser skilled player made some crazy skunk play, where the skunk did some insane jumps or made it through a tiny gap that normally would never happen.... majority of people would say it was a lucky win....

but obviously some players would say .... "well, i did not get full damage with the dyno, so it was not a perfect game, my fault"



ok, i went a bit off topic, just trying to make a point that just because a perfect game is not played, does not mean there was not a large factor of luck involved...

the random generated droppings of crates can determine if a player attacks or not...  because no matter how good Dub-C 'thinks' he is, there are some crates that are just purely impossible... and that is not fair, its LUCK.

there are a number of things we can do, in order to decrease the luck (we will never eliminate it)  but no one wants to do that... this scheme is classic.

you learned to rope with 25 seconds, lets retire with it.

[Kangaroo]

Just play roper on an empty map with 4 sec Turntime..

[Rok]

there is no such thing as a perfect game, and there never will be.

And that's the reason why games where crates alone decide the winner are so rare. There's little point in blaiming a bad crate for your loss when you could've won if you didn't make mistakes. I remember that clanner when shyguy was all mad at crates for losing. But in that game mm would still have won if he just did one less major mistake in crucial moment.
Nobody says there's no luck in roper, but you somehow fail to see it's not as LARGE a factor as you say it is.

[TheKomodo]

there is no such thing as a perfect game, and there never will be.

Yes there is, Deadcode can program it.

And in human terms, like, "he played perfect" is true also, i've seen people go entire games without making 1 costly mistake. Who really gives a f@#! anyway, some people are too dumb to see the truth, some aren't, we're all gonna die someday anyway who cares...

[avirex]

Ok rok, if you and I play a roper game and my crates are undeniably hareder...

That means I have to rope harder, faster, and stroner then you...

I would say that increases my odds of falling dramaticly...

So people like me and shy will blame the crates, you dub and franz will blame the fallin result of the crate.. But no, not the crate. THE FALL!

[Statik]

avi seems to be the only one who actually understands ... :p

[Dub-c]

So far barman has been the only one to address my stats. If roper is so lucky, how can the top 10 overall ropers have such a high win percentage? One that is comparable to all the other schemes and even comparable to ttrr?

Crates to not hurt the better roper, they help the better roper.

 

[DENnis]

avi seems to be the only one who actually understands ... :p

No.

Me too!

Ok rok, if you and I play a roper game and my crates are undeniably hareder...

That means I have to rope harder, faster, and stroner then you...

I would say that increases my odds of falling dramaticly...

So people like me and shy will blame the crates, you dub and franz will blame the fallin result of the crate.. But no, not the crate. THE FALL!

It is just true.


Just think about sport:

Person 1 runs 5 km.

Person 2 runs 10 km.


Everybody just say: Sure, it is possible that Person 2 beats Person 1 although Person 1 has such a big advantage.

But if Person 2 would complain at tus because his way was longer many people here would say: No, you were just too slow, you started too fast and then failed (got exhausted too early, fall, shit in pants, died, or what ever).

And then a lot of people will say: WOOOOOOOOOOOOW PERSON 1, VERY GOOD JOB, you won because u just did less mistakes  

[Rok]

Ok rok, if you and I play a roper game and my crates are undeniably hareder...

That means I have to rope harder, faster, and stroner then you...

I would say that increases my odds of falling dramaticly...

So people like me and shy will blame the crates, you dub and franz will blame the fallin result of the crate.. But no, not the crate. THE FALL!

My point is that, most of the time, neither player's crates are "undeniably" harder. Sure it's crates to blame if they all fall on the other side of the map for you, but as someone else said ITT, that happens 1 out of 100 games. This excuse "I had to risk more" just isn't there as often as you want it to be.



A and B is roughly where most crates fall. If you're a good roper, whether you got all A crates and your opponent all B, it shouldn't matter. You'll get them all and attack.