Well, after a small windows update, I'm getting the same error as Sensei.
Replays run fine. Starting a game causes black screen requiring a CtrlAltDel to quit.
Tried all the compatibility modes, none work for me.
For now, I have to use wkD3D9Wnd.
Edit:
And actually it works pretty well!
In the past wkD3D9Wnd caused me to have slight input lag, but now with "disable fullscreen optimizations" checked, all is good.
wkD3D9Wnd.ini:
[InGameSettings]
Fullscreen=1