EAC 2013 - Smalltalk

[HHC]

That's me baby 

Alphabetical order! huahua.

[SPW]

ladies first, its easy. 

[Ray]

ladies first, its easy. 

How about free wins? How do those count? Should they count? Right now, it looks like they do, which doesn't seem very sensible to me, since if someone predicted 3-1 they get less points then someone predicting 3-0 and either way, it doesn't make any sense, because it was a free win. What do you think?

[Random00]

It said Free Wins do count as a 3-0 in the rules since the very start. Anyone could have taken that into account.

[Ray]

Hmm, alright, it just seemed weird to me.

[lales]

hey fellas, i miss u in this WO 2013 edition, i will host an elite tourney 2on2, tomorrow 14:00 GMT
i would love to see ur faces there, ty
i hope to MOD a great tourney with that randombot pairings and get a lot of nice players

hugs ! cu there to HF !

[Ray]

Hey lales! Yea, I personally dislike WO, hence my inactivity in the contest. An Elite tournament hosted by you sounds good on the other hand! But, I won't be at home at that time.

[SPW]

And so me, working then as usual. At 17 gmt I play vs Random, so he cant too probably. And after that game he plays vs Chick.

Besides, when I was playing WO, then full. I dont join for few tourneys just to have my name in the history.

Anyway lales, wish you a nice tourney. 

[chuvash]

finally we did this game with Crash!

[Crazy]

Chuvash-Crazy 75-25% in schedule/pred.game? What a low blow!! Chuvash beats me 3 out of 4 times? OKay... Nothing against you chuvash, but those numbers are taken out of the sky. I feel offended by that prediction.. He has performed very well against good opponents so far, but it seems like people are blinded by those results. Chuvash performs above his own level when facing strong opponents, obviously. I'd say me and chuvash are quite equal skillwise, it's a 50/50 match-up. He has a little advantage because of the knowledge all the intermediate has given him. We both have a winning percent of 59% in TEL (actually mine is 0.03% higher then his), we are 7-5 heads up adv me. My prediction: game goes through a five-set game and it's a coin flip who wins.

Random, you are 15 points behind SPW, Dulek & co, here is your chance to catch up with them. Take a "huge risk" and predict me as winner. There is big value in chosing me instead of chuvash anyways. That's my point about this, it's not my egoism, it's just plain wrong percentage and it gives an incorrect image of the probability. Even worse is Almog vs lales, which says 100% for Almog. Yeaaaaaaa right. My credibility is low tho as I've been the worst predicter this year

[SPW]

Sometimes I am a bit confused about your posts, crazy. But well, you wanna hear the truth, here is it. Chuvash is the better player, you only have some few advantages against him. Guess its BnG, tho not your world either, and sudden death. Technics, Tactics and overall skills are pro chuvash. His biggest problem: Doing some faults by rushing the turns, it quiet often looks a bit aggorant. And BnG is his biggest leak, no question. But if you are not enough careful, the cows will kill you sooner or later.

Best chance to win against him: Defense tactic, BnG turns and going into sudden death. Your supersheep is your advantage there.

Alltogether, imo Crazy vs chuvash 2013: 30:70. 

[Random00]

Chuvash-Crazy 75-25% in schedule/pred.game?

those percentages are based on the predictions that were made. So, thats simply a 3-1 for chuvash that most players predicted.
But sure, you can prove the predictors wrong by winning more than 1 round ^^

and btw: I didn't predict 3-1 

[Crazy]

I know SPW, it's just that I from time to time talk straight from the shoulder, more often when drunk. Well basically we disagree then, I don't see how his tactics are superior to mine, or that his overallskill is. BnG has been my weakest skill/scheme since I started playing, and in particular in recent years as more and more players have started notching, so I don't think that's any advantage on him. Chuvash has a better and wider understanding of how to make use of weps in the most effecient way imo, but other then that, our match should be wide open. It's 55-45% advantage him, nothing more ;P I know you don't like gambling, but I'll give you 1.85 in odds for Chuvash. It will give you a nice profit in return in the long run if Chuvash really is as big faourite as you say.

Indeed Random, that's why I questioned that Chuvash beats me 3 out of 4 times, like 3-1 for example. I am really motivated to prove them wrong, atleast. It's a start and better then nothing

[SPW]

Indeed Random, that's why I questioned that Chuvash beats me 3 out of 4 times, like 3-1 for example. I am really motivated to prove them wrong, atleast. It's a start and better then nothing

Then you just catch that 30%, nothing more. If you play 10 series against him, you will lose 7 of it by winning 3. 

By the way, BnG isnt only notching. Just check some "freestyle nades" from previous games. They can just turn everything and bring you the victory. And that has nothing to do with notches. Its just the damn skill. 

Your odds getting smaller cause of that leak in BnG. And thats probably the best counter against players like chuvash.

I voted 3:0 btw and I dont change it until the deadline. I dont like to change predicts afterwards.

Dont take it personally, Crazy. I dont have anything against you and you are a nice guy.

[Almog]

Even worse is Almog vs lales, which says 100% for Almog. Yeaaaaaaa right. My credibility is low tho as I've been the worst predicter this year

Good job.