Euro 2016 prediction game (win a copy of WMD!)

[Aerox]

Ideally, instead of goal difference, it should be goals difference from real result. In the case of a 2-1, a 2-0 is closer to the real result than 1-0, because you need to change 1 goal only in the first but 2 goals in the second. But I think that's too confusing, specially since it should only work when you also predict the winning team or if it's a draw, a draw. Because imagine someone put 2-2. All in all, I think the goal difference rule whilst not perfect, is the most effective and the rules were written before it all started, so we can theorycraft but should be happy to comply with the way it works.

@Kins, those are all 15/1 ish odds XD

[Ryan]

Urgh, I should have predicted more draws!

[HHC]

Yeah. i don't think 2-0 is closer to 2-1 than 1-0 though. Goal difference reflects the strength of the teams. France was 1 goal better than Rumania, that's how I see it. Anubis did predict better the difference in strength between the two teams.

Ryan: in my previous fantasy games I always thought draws were overrated, they seem to occur less often. It seems better to predict a small win in all games, for the strongest team. Let's see how well draws perform here, that 3pt could restore the balance.

[Sensei]

Husk and Barman teamed up for predictions?
Haha

[Aerox]

Yeah. i don't think 2-0 is closer to 2-1 than 1-0 though. Goal difference reflects the strength of the teams. France was 1 goal better than Rumania, that's how I see it. Anubis did predict better the difference in strength between the two teams.

Ryan: in my previous fantasy games I always thought draws were overrated, they seem to occur less often. It seems better to predict a small win in all games, for the strongest team. Let's see how well draws perform here, that 3pt could restore the balance.

you're thinking of two leg eliminations systems

imagine the game: 20-19

a 20-18 prediction and a 1-0 prediction, who made the better prediction?

[spleen17]

Yeah. i don't think 2-0 is closer to 2-1 than 1-0 though. Goal difference reflects the strength of the teams. France was 1 goal better than Rumania, that's how I see it. Anubis did predict better the difference in strength between the two teams.

Ryan: in my previous fantasy games I always thought draws were overrated, they seem to occur less often. It seems better to predict a small win in all games, for the strongest team. Let's see how well draws perform here, that 3pt could restore the balance.

you're thinking of two leg eliminations systems

imagine the game: 20-19

a 20-18 prediction and a 1-0 prediction, who made the better prediction?

1-0 is the better prediction.

[Aerox]

it was a rhetoric question...

given the 20-19 game and the two predictions 20-18 and 1-0

if you place a bet for 1-0, the moment they're 1-1 0-1 or 2-0 you win nothing and those are the only next possible outcomes to 1-0, basically, the more the game evolves into the final result the quicker you lose

if you place a bet for 20-18 you can cash in at any point until the very end. Why? Because it's a closer prediction, and because it's closer to the real result you can get incremental money at any point the closer it gets

if you want to think of prediction as a game of betting, the rules are clear

disclaimer: i already said that the goal difference is a better system for this particular gimmick, however, it's not the theoretical best.

[spleen17]

I see what you are saying, but in this sort of predictions game I would agree that if the score is 2-1, then 1-0 was a better prediction than 2-0. (Again, not talking about general sports-betting which is different because it involves actual odds.)

[HHC]

regarding kins vs aerox debate: 1-0 was the better prediction

gg thar

Now wales vs Slovakia.

[Csongi]

1-1 like a boss!! 😎😎

[HHC]

Ae, well done. Csong gonna be sleeping as leader after day 2

Senator, nightmares.

[Chelsea]

http://extremesupporters.com/2016/06/09/pierwsze-przygody-polskich-kibicow-we-francji/

„Frendly” hello from supporters of Lech Poznan from their trip to France – during which they met fans from Russia:

First hooligans Lech commute to France already tonight. For now, in the strength of one car in four person. Arriving at the French border is a „girl # from Russia. We offer them 4vs4 but probably miscalculated, trying to immediately us to enter. Three of them died after a good number of shots, the last bastował and gave the shirt. The car did not have anything. We greet all the occupants Euro and other spectators who were traveling on the road and to greet us even though other colors. Let’s show how we play, France is to be red and white! Ouch!

[Aerox]

senator can you hear me?

[MarianRV]

Yeah. i don't think 2-0 is closer to 2-1 than 1-0 though. Goal difference reflects the strength of the teams. France was 1 goal better than Rumania, that's how I see it. Anubis did predict better the difference in strength between the two teams.

Ryan: in my previous fantasy games I always thought draws were overrated, they seem to occur less often. It seems better to predict a small win in all games, for the strongest team. Let's see how well draws perform here, that 3pt could restore the balance.

is it that hard to write Romania ? XD

[Sensei]

hhc, maybe it would look better if you put all prediction stats in 1st post, not just today/yesterday!?