Lucky Roper [for MI, franz, Dub-c]

[TheKomodo]

The conclusion is, Dub-C and franz are blind to the truth, glad I ain't that dumb lol.

[MonkeyIsland]

You forgot to include me in your dumb list komo

[TheKomodo]

You forgot to include me in your dumb list komo

You too then.

[DENnis]

There are only very few schemes which are luckfree (Schemes where is no luck included if you use the right maps and no chute).

The only luckfree schemes are: ttrr without chute, SuperSheepRace, BungeeRace on maps without pixelwalls, BoomRace on maps without pixelwalls, Golf on no pixelmaps, BigRR without chute and Tower Race without chute. In every scheme you can still have a big advantage if you know the map much better than your opponent.

All other schemes including luck - which should be (in the theory and mainly) no problem because WA should create games where both get 50 % bad luck and 50% luck. This works not in every single game, it gets only close to it at the overall when you played very many games.

Very important to say is, that THE LUCK ALONE DOES NEVER DECIDE A GAME, because none game can be perfect and there's almost always a chance for a comeback or that the opponent fails. Even with an advantage you still have to rope / handle safe and concentrated to do no fails less fails than your opponent to win.

Like I said the luck can't decide the game directly. A real noob would never beat a real pro. Luck only creates unfair advantages where you can counter with tactic and skill. If that's not enough because the opponent is on the same or a higher skilllevel the advantage could create a not 100% deserved victory for your opponent, so the luck can decide the game indirect. For sure that person who got an advantage (because of luck) has more chance to win the game. But that's like real life ... Just don't give up and let the past be past. Your luck will come back.

+ Theres another way to get a lot of advantage ... Just practise a lot. + If you are very lame you use always the same map(s) to get the lame-advantage, too.

[TheKomodo]

franz and dub (and MI lol) are generally right, but they exaggerate a little, luck does have it's moments.

[chakkman]

Very important to say is, that THE LUCK ALONE DOES NEVER DECIDE A GAME, because none game can be perfect and there's almost always a chance for a comeback or that the opponent fails. Even with an advantage you still have to rope / handle safe and concentrated to do no fails less fails than your opponent to win.

That is basically the main point. Can we close this topic now?

[WookA]

u can throw me on that list with MI franz and dub, people bringing up cr8 luck in roper has always just been a waste of time... worms has luck in it, get over it

and i love 2 worm roper, i think i might start asking for it with tus

[TheWalrus]

If you think luck doesn't exist in roper, id say you are mildly misinformed.  I am the luckiest wormer to ever shoot a ninja rope in a roper.  Ask anyone.  It's unfair to go up against my noob crates.

[Dub-c]

Ok so roper is the luckiest scheme there is eh? Lets look at the numbers.

TTRR is widely considered the least luckiest scheme. So the top 10 overall winning percentage should be much higher then in roper right?

1      f4st      77   60   17   77.92%   -1   +15/-3   2576   
2      sock   cFc   368   239   129   64.95%   +20   +20/-13   2553   
3      Dulek   ps   85   64   21   75.29%   +2   +20/-5   2500   
4      Random00   CF   159   131   28   82.39%   +7   +24/-3   2417   
5      dibz   mm   244   210   34   86.07%   +5   +45/-4   2360   
6      franz   CF   137   101   36   73.72%   +4   +13/-4   2319   
7      Flori   ps   191   154   37   80.63%   +2   +23/-4   2255   
8      ZiPpO      290   221   69   76.21%   -2   +29/-6   2254   
9      barman   mm   103   90   13   87.38%   +7   +23/-3   2196   
10      ArtiC   cFc   286   233   53   81.47%   -2   +32/-9   2128

The average winning percentage of TTRR is 78.603%

Roper should obviously be much much lower since its so lucky and you will lose so often because of luck. Lets look at the numbers.

1      ZiPpO      400   300   100   75%   +5   +17/-4   2365   
2      Crazy   TdC   180   115   65   63.89%   +7   +10/-5   2272   
3      Dulek   ps   75   60   15   80%   +6   +16/-3   2254   
4      Random00   CF   116   102   14   87.93%   +5   +17/-2   2222   
5      dibz   mm   319   266   53   83.39%   +3   +31/-5   2222   
6      fr4nk   CKC   112   82   30   73.21%   -1   +17/-6   2131   
7      ArtiC   cFc   167   135   32   80.84%   +2   +25/-3   2096   
8      lalo   cFc   114   79   35   69.3%   +14   +18/-9   2054   
9      Crash   CKC   281   189   92   67.26%   +7   +15/-7   2008   
10      franz   CF   73   52   21   71.23%   +3   +9/-4   1943

Ropers overall winning percentage is 75.205%. That's only 3 percent lower then ttrr? How is this possible for such a lucky scheme? How could people have such a high winning percentage when its so lucky? WOW?
      

[Kangaroo]

If you think luck doesn't exist in roper, id say you are mildly misinformed.  I am the luckiest wormer to ever shoot a ninja rope in a roper.  Ask anyone.  It's unfair to go up against my noob crates.

you got nothing, I beat u once >

[Masta]

many threads about roper now.. didn't think ppl gave a fk about this schem x)
ROPER FOR TRL!! ^^

and my imho on the roper = luck is, bs (roper isn't 100% luck).
the better u get at playing roper the less luck u think is involved.. the noob or mediocre roper player will say: yep, this schem is about 75% luck.
the pro player will probably say something like: there is some luck involved, but the probability of getting only bad crates or only getting easy crates is low, so the luck is about  5-10% and rest is skill (note: im kinda noob in roper, so not talking from experience, i feel like there is more than 10% luck there, but when u get better, u might feel like most crates are easy and u feel like roper is not so luck based as u thought 5 years ago, lelz)

[Statik]

This is not a complaining topic, I just tried to show replays where crates decided much (MI was interested in such replays). Here is franz vs Csongi PO game: https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/game-109463/ Yes, it wasn't a flawless game, but crates really made Csongi's life easier. It looks like people who are sure there is no luck in roper will always find some mistakes which dramatically affected the game. And I guess in the perfect roper game players should predict crates positions, because there are no random numbers, they are pseudo-random and generated by strict algorithms

[Rok]

Here is franz vs Csongi PO game

That doesn't count. Csongi is just a lucky exception.

[barman]

Ok so roper is the luckiest scheme there is eh? Lets look at the numbers.

TTRR is widely considered the least luckiest scheme. So the top 10 overall winning percentage should be much higher then in roper right? [...]
The average winning percentage of TTRR is 78.603%

Roper should obviously be much much lower since its so lucky and you will lose so often because of luck. Lets look at the numbers. [...]
Ropers overall winning percentage is 75.205%. That's only 3 percent lower then ttrr? How is this possible for such a lucky scheme? How could people have such a high winning percentage when its so lucky? WOW?
      

Note: you have simply calculated the average of winning percentages without taking into account the number of games played by every player.
The weighted averages are 77.47% for TTRR and 75.21% for roper.

Let's look at the weighted averages from the other classic league schemes:
BnG: 84.68%
Elite: 72.94%
Hysteria: 73.82%
Shopper: 74.09%
Team17: 76.4%
WxW: 77.22%

These numbers make me think that comparing the top 10 players' winning percentages is not a good idea to measure how does luck affect the scheme. Players who dominate their favorite schemes are a bad test sample.

Instead, I think it's better to look at the average of the overall points gained by winners of a set of random games from every scheme. A higher average would suggest a more lucky scheme, because it would show that low-rated players occur to beat high-rated players more often.

Here are the results for 100 most recent singles non-playoff games in every scheme. (A total of 800 games analyzed)
BnG: 37.17
Elite: 30.58
Hysteria: 32.77
Roper: 32.95
Shopper: 30.9
Team17: 31.21
TTRR: 28.92
WxW: 29.03

BnG is a large peculiarity here, I think that the unusually high average rating gain is caused by the fact that it's the least played scheme and it's not an uncommon situation when a player's rating doesn't really reflect his/her skill level.
If my methodology is correct, then aside BnG, roper appears to be the most luck-based scheme, followed by hysteria and T17.

Edit: forgot to include WxW

[Statik]

What are these numbers, bar? And how did u calculate? You should provide a more detailed explanation for lazy people like me