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April 26, 2024, 11:53 PM

Poll

Scheme with most luck in?

Roper
2 (12.5%)
Shopper
4 (25%)
Team17
8 (50%)
Other...
2 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 16

Author Topic: What is the most luck based scheme?  (Read 2644 times)

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Offline Kradie

What is the most luck based scheme?
« on: August 18, 2021, 03:42 PM »
If you can think of more schemes I can add it to the poll.
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Offline Albus

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Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2021, 03:58 PM »
Among these 4, I would say it's team17. And, in my opinion, it involves even more luck if it's played on island map.

Offline Kaleu

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2021, 04:01 PM »
Poll: Team17
Other: Comet Dodging
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Online Lupastic

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2021, 04:17 PM »
comet dodging, russian roulette schemes : ]

Offline Echiko

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2021, 05:04 PM »
comet dodging, russian roulette schemes : ]

Yes, and kaos too if you get just laser sight in utilities :D
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Offline Hurz

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2021, 10:39 PM »
nono

Online TheWalrus

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2021, 12:21 AM »
team17 and it is easily statistically backed up with historical league results.  Winning percentages and top ranks achieved by the top 5 all time in team17 are lower than the other schemes.  The largest sample size is from pre rank reset, I don’t know how to access those results, but top players averaged about 65% win rate if memory serves.  other players easily topped that in other schemes, Komo’s all time 1v1 record in bng is about 97%, by comparison.  Roper has variance but not what team17 has, by a long shot.

Offline giJo

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2021, 12:50 AM »
comet dodging, russian roulette schemes : ]

Yes, and kaos too if you get just laser sight in utilities :D
relatable...

Offline TheKomodo

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2021, 12:30 PM »
team17 and it is easily statistically backed up with historical league results.  Winning percentages and top ranks achieved by the top 5 all time in team17 are lower than the other schemes.  The largest sample size is from pre rank reset, I don’t know how to access those results, but top players averaged about 65% win rate if memory serves.  other players easily topped that in other schemes, Komo’s all time 1v1 record in bng is about 97%, by comparison.  Roper has variance but not what team17 has, by a long shot.

You made me curious so i've spent the past half an hour doing some research:

Top 10 Average Win Percentage:

  • Shopper - 80.99%
  • BnG - 80.793%
  • TTRR - 80.254%
  • Hysteria - 77.693%
  • Roper - 77.08%
  • Elite - 75.687%
  • WxW - 71.964%
  • Team17 - 68.189%

Top 5 Average Win Percentage:

  • BnG - 89.266%
  • Shopper- 82.918%
  • WxW - 80.99%
  • TTRR - 80.404% (Error 404 - Ryan not found!)
  • Hysteria - 80.402%
  • Elite - 78.916%
  • Roper - 78.848%
  • Team17 - 70.592%

Top 3 Average Win Percentage:

  • BnG - 94.61%
  • Hysteria - 86.856%
  • Shopper - 85.03%
  • Elite - 84.243%
  • WxW - 83.166%
  • Roper - 80.776%
  • TTRR - 78.396%
  • Team17 - 72.123%



Screenshots of top ten in each scheme from the first era of TUS, in alphabetical order:

BnG:





Elite:





Hysteria:





Roper:





Shopper:





Team17:





TTRR:





WxW:










Offline Korydex

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2021, 02:24 PM »
Nice analysis, Dave! Weird to see shopper in top 3 ;d

Offline Dario

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2021, 02:59 PM »
I smell stats...
Nice approach, and excuse my rope-noobeness, but what could be causing the low win% in TTRR? is it luck? what is "luck" in TTRR? Could it be explained because top TTRR players are all very good but with a similar skill level while in BnG very few players are way above the skill level of the average player?.
Those % are highly influenced by the distribution of skills in the player base; a player base that has very few high-skilled players and a lot of average/low skilled players will definitely have a higher win ratio among the top players, compared to another player base of the same scheme where the skill level is more or less the same in the whole player base.
Momentarily not playing TUS league games.

Offline TheKomodo

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2021, 03:58 PM »
Nice analysis, Dave! Weird to see shopper in top 3 ;d

I smell stats...
Nice approach, and excuse my rope-noobeness, but what could be causing the low win% in TTRR? is it luck? what is "luck" in TTRR? Could it be explained because top TTRR players are all very good but with a similar skill level while in BnG very few players are way above the skill level of the average player?.
Those % are highly influenced by the distribution of skills in the player base; a player base that has very few high-skilled players and a lot of average/low skilled players will definitely have a higher win ratio among the top players, compared to another player base of the same scheme where the skill level is more or less the same in the whole player base.

Thanks Korydex & Dario.

I was very surprised to see Shopper so high, though after thinking about it more, it makes sense when you think about popularity, and the fact it's an allround league and people will pick schemes based on points and strengths/weaknesses.

So, I think you've nailed the most part on the head Dario.

barman and I obviously never played at the same time so we never played each other. The only reason barman and I were able to achieve such a high % in BnG is because there were only a few good BnG players active in TUS during our periods of activity.

TTRR, was a VASTLY more popular scheme than BnG, as you can see just by looking at the images the amount of Elite ranked players absolutely dwarf literally every other scheme, in fact the only other schemes to have any Elite ranked players was BnG and WxW.

League TTRR has a handful of players as good in League TTRR as barman and I were in League BnG:

Mablak, Statik, Ryan, Lordhound, SirJ.

In my eyes those are the top 5 TTRR players around the 2010-2016 era, a level above everyone else.

Mablak and SirJ didn't even play, Statik had a record of 38-0 which is great though very inactive, LordHound was very inactive with 38-8, Ryan was pretty inactive as well though still made the top 10 with 69-4.

Had these 5 guys played even a couple hundred games each during good activity, things would probably be even lower in TTRR.

Then you had people who were also really good:

barman, Sbaffo, blitzed, Dulek, franz, Masta, sm0k, lalo, daina, LukZ, f4st, Csongi, AduN, TOMT, Madden, yanme, s4li, Ray, FLori, NAiL, donnie(Kaleu), ShyGuy...

Then you had about a hundred or so people on the top end of average capable of having the odd really good turn and beating the really good players.

TTRR is one of the most popular schemes of all time versus BnG which is one of the least popular schemes of all time.



Not to mention although these are individual standings, it IS an Allround League, so each player gets 1 pick and will generally speaking pick what they believe they are stronger in, although there are a lot of players who just want to play top players, there was a lot of avoiding and carefully picking schemes because even though someone who is good could have an Elite rank, if Mablak suddenly decided to play, they wouldn't want to risk their points against someone that good who doesn't have a score than reflects their actual skill level.

From my perspective, the standings and statistics are a mess and don't truly reflect the actual player base and schemes properly in my opinion, though they still give you a little idea when talking about why Team17 is considered more luck based.

In a perfect world we'd be playing this like football leagues, where we would have thousands of players, and divisions with an absolute top Premier League for the best of the best. Everyone has to play everyone else like 2-3 times in a season. Then we'd see some solid results.

Online TheWalrus

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2021, 04:55 PM »
Solid breakdown Dave, I more or less agree with everything you said, bng is the greatest contrast because not many people show enthusiasm for it, most just played when it is picked, I played 100’s, if not thousands of bng games.  Was able to go from relative noob to top 5 elite tier in a year or two.  Very little luck variance.  Ttrr is explained well with more robust and active competition. 

The one statistic I would love to have and always wanted as it relates to luck is the percentage change in win rate when you place your worm first in elite.  In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper.  Out of all the allround schemes I have always felt like placing first in elite has the greatest effect on the game, having map control from the very beginning.  I would guess it would be 3-7%, but without a large sample size the data would be useless.  This sort of thing has always captured my attention, finite data that tells a story about gameplay over a longitudinal period. 

Offline Korydex

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2021, 05:05 PM »
The one statistic I would love to have and always wanted as it relates to luck is the percentage change in win rate when you place your worm first in elite.  In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper.  Out of all the allround schemes I have always felt like placing first in elite has the greatest effect on the game, having map control from the very beginning.  I would guess it would be 3-7%, but without a large sample size the data would be useless.  This sort of thing has always captured my attention, finite data that tells a story about gameplay over a longitudinal period. 
I think having first turn is always an advantage in default schemes. Btw, I think that placement in Mole Shopper is more lucky than in Inter or T17, if you have more worms on top it's much easier to control the game.

Offline Senator

Re: What is the most luck based scheme?
« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2021, 05:34 PM »
In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper.

Actually in Roper it plays a big role because it's much easier to make a successful first turn with the bazooka when you start from the top of the map. If both players start from the top, the first player gets an easier first turn anyway because he can take a better hide after attacking.