What is the most luck based scheme?

[TheKomodo]

Some schemes it's better to go last, TTRR & Big RR for example, as they can show you the map, and you can quickly optimize your turn by watching they they did and seeing how it can be improved.

On the other hand, maybe you're so good you can get such a good turn it puts the fear in them!

[TheWalrus]

In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper.

Actually in Roper it plays a big role because it's much easier to make a successful first turn with the bazooka when you start from the top of the map. If both players start from the top, the first player gets an easier first turn anyway because he can take a better hide after attacking.

I don’t think I was specific enough, the luck of going first is nowhere near as impactful as the crate luck after it, so in terms of overall impact it is very low.

Was making the contrast with elite, where the first turn is luck based and is the only thing that swings the game luck-wise from that point on, so it is something that could be statistically quantified. 

I would agree with your assessment that going first is better, but one unreachable crate later in the game would always sway the game more than going first. 

[Kradie]

I never had that much of a problem with crate rapes in roper. They can act as a equalizer to give the losing team a fighting chance. Bitter the crate may be but may be a necessary equalizer.

[Senator]

@Elite

I think many players don't know how to play when they go second. Like in Chess you can't just make mirror moves and expect to win. There's a few different ways to play as the second player. Some players such as FaD prefer to darkside and give the first player early map control, then attack from underneath with skunk / air strikes etc and finally open at the right moment. Other players such as VoK prefer to fight for the map control and take advantage of worm rotation and piling (aka telecow). An important thing in that strategy is also to have a worm that can girder block from a safe hide.

[Saint]

@Elite

I think many players don't know how to play when they go second. Like in Chess you can't just make mirror moves and expect to win. There's a few different ways to play as the second player. Some players such as FaD prefer to darkside and give the first player early map control, then attack from underneath with skunk / air strikes etc and finally open at the right moment. Other players such as VoK prefer to fight for the map control and take advantage of worm rotation and piling (aka telecow). An important thing in that strategy is also to have a worm that can girder block from a safe hide.

ahahah, could you also tell us about the strategies of other players, I must know their weak points

[Senator]

ahahah, could you also tell us about the strategies of other players, I must know their weak points

Can you rather tell us about those weak points?

It's important to know different ways of playing Elite so that you are not screwed when the map pick doesn't allow your usual forts style placements, for example.

[Saint]

imagine you are playing against a player and you know his weak point, for example accuracy (bng). accordingly, you will keep your distance from him to make it harder for him, and vice versa, you will aggressively play against the player with good accuracy. or you play  always the same against everyone?

[Saint]

the better you know your opponent, the easier it is to win

[Korydex]

Btw if we look at TRL, where most of the players knew what they were playing, the stats are slightly different. T17 average winrate increases by 2% and Roper by 3-4%.
https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/TRL-standings/rTeam17/
https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/TRL-standings/rRoper/

• TTRR - 80.404% (Error 404 - Ryan not found!)

There he is https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/TRL-standings/rTTRR/

[TheKomodo]

• TTRR - 80.404% (Error 404 - Ryan not found!)

There he is https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/TRL-standings/rTTRR/

Wut, that link takes me to ZAR TRL lol?

[Korydex]

• TTRR - 80.404% (Error 404 - Ryan not found!)

There he is https://www.tus-wa.com/leagues/TRL-standings/rTTRR/

Wut, that link takes me to ZAR TRL lol?

Not sure why :d But here's the screenshot.

[TheKomodo]

Yeah that looks right.

Shame SirJ aka rudolf289, blitzed, Statik and Mablak didn't play more games.

The win percentages all add up though based on the amount of games they played although i'm curious who beat Mablak twice, 80% seems very low, though to be fair 10 games isn't exactly active and warmed up.

[Ryan]

Hello!

I'm terms of how high winning percentages are, there are a few more factors.

Is every game being reported?
If players agree to DoN then the all-round top players may be losing less games, or they may be denied wins in their strongest schemes because they lost the opponent's pick.

I think it depends on the player's mentality on schemes vs all round too.
Scheme specialists will probably have a really high win percentage. Certain schemes lend themselves to being specialist schemes due to unique skills required.

The high percentages could actually be due to opponents not wanting to play the scheme, and in some cases they "can't be bothered" rather than thinking they have no chance.

[Senator]

The one statistic I would love to have and always wanted as it relates to luck is the percentage change in win rate when you place your worm first in elite.  In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper.  Out of all the allround schemes I have always felt like placing first in elite has the greatest effect on the game, having map control from the very beginning.  I would guess it would be 3-7%, but without a large sample size the data would be useless.  This sort of thing has always captured my attention, finite data that tells a story about gameplay over a longitudinal period.

I was curious and went through Random00's TEL games

Started 335 rounds - win rate 85.97%
Didn't start 343 rounds - win rate 81.92%

I'd like to see stats from games between top players because in those games everyone knows the different strategies for when you go first/second and how to counter them.

[TheWalrus]

The one statistic I would love to have and always wanted as it relates to luck is the percentage change in win rate when you place your worm first in elite.  In wxw, first worm placement advantage is very negligible, as is roper.  Out of all the allround schemes I have always felt like placing first in elite has the greatest effect on the game, having map control from the very beginning.  I would guess it would be 3-7%, but without a large sample size the data would be useless.  This sort of thing has always captured my attention, finite data that tells a story about gameplay over a longitudinal period.

I was curious and went through Random00's TEL games

Started 335 rounds - win rate 85.97%
Didn't start 343 rounds - win rate 81.92%

I'd like to see stats from games between top players because in those games everyone knows the different strategies for when you go first/second and how to counter them.

Truly great info, 4% difference, about what I expected, but I assume with lesser skilled players the first turn advantage would even equate to an even larger jump in win rate, but just a hypothesis.  Would be nice if we could batch large amounts of replays, how did you gather this info?