EURO 2012 POLAND UKRAINE

[HHC]

The team that ends up winning EC is quite often off to a bad start early on.

1988 netherlands won 3.1 against england in first game

We lost 0-1 to the SU in the first game. Played vs England in the 2nd.

And then we won. 

I know you don't wanna admit it, but Netherlands is gonna kick german ass tonight. 

[Crazy]

Lol, shut up peja xD maybe it was WC.. Doesn't change the fact that Germany loses today!

[Peja]

The team that ends up winning EC is quite often off to a bad start early on.

1988 netherlands won 3.1 against england in first game

We lost 0-1 to the SU in the first game. Played vs England in the 2nd.

And then we won.  

I know you don't wanna admit it, but Netherlands is gonna kick german ass tonight.  

dammit research fail, was actually wondering caus commentator said the same thing in game against denmark xD

[Throsti]

2:1 for Germany. Sorry Holland. But Germany is strongest. Sad true :[

>>>ahaha i said 1:1 before Poland vs Greece, i said 1:1 Poland vs Russia, i said 2:1 Germany vs Holland,i said 1:1 Spain vs italy. I know everything ahaha

[darKz]

Actually... Well here's my predictions.

Denmark 0-3 Portugal ~ Portugese are gonna play a lot better than in the first game, they gotta make up for it
Germany 3-1 Netherlands ~ Starring Robben, missing on a penalty kick

[Casso]

Octopus Paul has been reincarnated in darKz xD

[darKz]

Off to public viewing now, see y'all later!

[Throsti]

ahaha i said 1:1 before Poland vs Greece, i said 1:1 before Poland vs Russia, i said 2:1 before Germany vs Holland,i said 1:1 before Spain vs italy. I know everything ah

[darKz]

I know you don't wanna admit it, but Netherlands is gonna kick german ass tonight. 

<3

[Crazy]

Congrats René, and Germany xD Netherland looked totally paralyzed for a longer period of the game... I'm glad I didn't put any money on the match ;P But Netherland still got nice chance to go through. They need to beat Portugal with atleast two golas, and Danmark to lose vs Germany. If this happends, they will meet Russia in the quarter-finals.

I have done some research on this and found out how likely it is that Netherland will progress from group stage, and then their chance on winning the EC:

Netherland-Portugal: Bookies give an average odds of 5.00 for Netherland to win with atleast two goals = 20% probability.
Denmark-Germany: Bookies give Germany an average odds of 1.66 to win vs Denmark = 60% probability.

Netherland's chances of progressing from group stage: 0.2*0.6 = 0.12 = 12%.

To win the entire EC is not so easy to estimate. But they are one of eight teams left after group stage, which gives them 12.5% (1/8) chance of winning. They should be rated as favourites vs Russia though, so I have adjusted this up to 15%. So to progress from group stage AND win the rest of their matches: 0.12*0.15 = 0.018 = 1.8%. In 50 times with this scenario, then Netherland would be likely to succeed one time.

In other words, you need 55 (1/0.018) in odds for Netherland to win the EC to make a bet which gives you a profit in return in the long run. Right now, the odds offered from different boomakers variates from 25 to 34. I want to bet on Netherland, but I will lose money on it

[HHC]

Congrats René, and Germany xD Netherland looked totally paralyzed for a longer period of the game... I'm glad I didn't put any money on the match ;P But Netherland still got nice chance to go through. They need to beat Portugal with atleast two golas, and Danmark to lose vs Germany. If this happends, they will meet Russia in the quarter-finals.

I have done some research on this and found out how likely it is that Netherland will progress from group stage, and then their chance on winning the EC:

Netherland-Portugal: Bookies give an average odds of 5.00 for Netherland to win with atleast two goals = 20% probability.
Denmark-Germany: Bookies give Germany an average odds of 1.66 to win vs Denmark = 60% probability.

Netherland's chances of progressing from group stage: 0.2*0.6 = 0.12 = 12%.

To win the entire EC is not so easy to estimate. But they are one of eight teams left after group stage, which gives them 12.5% (1/8) chance of winning. They should be rated as favourites vs Russia though, so I have adjusted this up to 15%. So to progress from group stage AND win the rest of their matches: 0.12*0.15 = 0.018 = 1.8%. In 50 times with this scenario, then Netherland would be likely to succeed one time.

In other words, you need 55 (1/0.018) in odds for Netherland to win the EC to make a bet which gives you a profit in return in the long run. Right now, the odds offered from different boomakers variates from 25 to 34. I want to bet on Netherland, but I will lose money on it

Yeah... did you see the game crazy? I sure as hell wouldn't put money on this team.

The whole team is in crisis atm. The defence was really really poor tonight. Especially young Willems was waaaaay not up to this level of competition. And the central pair is a joke like always. This reflects on the whole team... the trust is gone. They know they can't rely on these players.

And upfield Sneijder is but a shadow of his usual self. Robben is only interested in scoring a goal for his own so he can redeem himself. Persie also only wants to score real bad to prove the media wrong in their preference for Huntelaar (which ought to be playing IMO). Afellay has just come back from an injury and is far from ready for this level. And Kuyt is left on the bench... It's just a crap team atm. And not even 4 years can fix that (we need to wait for better defenders..), let alone 4 days.

[Crazy]

I watched it HHC, I didn't know things were this bad for Netherland... I mean, how did things turn like this so quickly? You were so impressive in the EC Qualification 0o And last match before the EC started, you won 6-0 vs Northern Ireland. What I was most surprised with in this game was the huge gap between midfield and defence, it seems like they didn't have any communication together at all. Germany had so much space and time to do whatever they'd like. There was also so bad movement amongst the players, nothing like the football I associate with the Dutchmen. Seemed like they gave up halfway through!

[darKz]

On the bright side (for who?!), Germany also didn't play the best they could have.. Podolski and partly Müller didn't have a real impact on the game, I was hoping at least one of them would get substituted with Reus or Götze. But I guess Löw is saving that for the match vs Denmark where there's almost nothing on the line for us anymore.. Saying almost because theoretically Germany is still not 100% through.

I sincerely hope that the Dutch recover and beat Portugal.

[TheWalrus]

In other words, you need 55 (1/0.018) in odds for Netherland to win the EC to make a bet which gives you a profit in return in the long run. Right now, the odds offered from different boomakers variates from 25 to 34. I want to bet on Netherland, but I will lose money on it

Hedge wager.

[Rok]

Netherland-Portugal: Bookies give an average odds of 5.00 for Netherland to win with atleast two goals = 20% probability.

In reality, much overestimated.