Congrats René, and Germany xD Netherland looked totally paralyzed for a longer period of the game... I'm glad I didn't put any money on the match ;P But Netherland still got nice chance to go through. They need to beat Portugal with atleast two golas, and Danmark to lose vs Germany. If this happends, they will meet Russia in the quarter-finals.
I have done some research on this and found out how likely it is that Netherland will progress from group stage, and then their chance on winning the EC:
Netherland-Portugal: Bookies give an average odds of 5.00 for Netherland to win with atleast two goals = 20% probability.
Denmark-Germany: Bookies give Germany an average odds of 1.66 to win vs Denmark = 60% probability.
Netherland's chances of progressing from group stage: 0.2*0.6 = 0.12 = 12%.To win the entire EC is not so easy to estimate. But they are one of eight teams left after group stage, which gives them 12.5% (1/8) chance of winning. They should be rated as favourites vs Russia though, so I have adjusted this up to 15%.
So to progress from group stage AND win the rest of their matches: 0.12*0.15 = 0.018 = 1.8%. In 50 times with this scenario, then Netherland would be likely to succeed one time.
In other words, you need 55 (1/0.018) in odds for Netherland to win the EC to make a bet which gives you a profit in return in the long run. Right now, the odds offered from different boomakers variates from 25 to 34. I want to bet on Netherland, but I will lose money on it