For the record, the disconnection happened on Zwitter's end. Here is my replay of the last round, showing my full rope turn:

There was also this draw:

Some fun TAs for this game:

Please upload the incomplete replay.

More replays, continued from above:

(The last one just suddenly ends, because at that point I wasn't sure what to do on GonZaLO's turns. The idea in that last replay is, what if instead of taking a chance with an Aqua Sheep that could miss, as in the second-to-last replay, instead I waited for a sure Aqua Sheep shot.)

I played this out in TA, taking much longer than turn time to consider what girder blocks you had available to do, and there were no especially crippling ones. All the scenarios I tried still ended up with you being extremely likely to lose. I took my own turns pretending not to know what was in your weapon inventory, and likewise for your turns.

If you had some girder block(s) in mind that I may not have thought of, please show them.

It's not fair for you to get to void games in which you were overwhelmingly likely to lose, just because you claim you had a significant chance of winning. Back it up with showing specific girder blocks, and if they're really as crippling as you claim I'll change my mind about this game. Otherwise you were indeed overwhelming likely to lose this game.

and I have no way of knowing that it wasn't Deadcode who disconnected.

I run a "ping -t" during all my WA games, to be able to tell if I am the one disconnecting. Every time my own connection has dropped, there are gaps in the ping responses. During this game, and particularly at the point of your disconnection, there were no gaps.


Here are some replay files from my TA scenario exploration. The gist is that even if he managed to block me pretty well, I'd still be able to kill him with the Aqua Sheep. He had no Homing Missiles, Homing Pigeons, Patsy's Magic Bullets, Aqua Sheep, Earth Quakes, or Indian Nuclear Tests at the time of his disconnection, and had very little access to crate space so would have been quite unlikely to pick any up.

GonZaLO has chosen to double down on with being rude and a bad sport. He's shown his true colors; so be it. This confirms my earlier impression of him, when playing the TRL Season 29 playoffs; he was gloating quite smugly in the chat, showing himself to be a bad sport when winning. And now he has shown himself to be a bad sport by way of denying he had a high likelihood of losing.

I withdraw my proposal to continue this game live online (in the case that I could have implemented it in a build soon enough); it was a bad idea anyway, as it would require either giving him a private build that he doesn't deserve, or publically releasing a build that would essentially be scaled-down TA build. Implementing the replay-continuation-online would be easy, but a week or two is not anywhere near enough time to implement and debug the security/protection against abuse of the replay-continuation feature. I do however plan to try implementing recovery-from-disconnection in time for the Season 30 TRL playoffs. This would be done by waiting for and allowing disconnected players to reconnect, instead of resuming from the replay file, to avoid potential abuse. (As such, it would only be able to recover from disconnections, not power failures or crashes.)

[Edit: I neglected to calculate the chances for draws when writing this last night. Now added. So as you can see, GonZaLO's wild guess of being 60% likely to pull a draw is not even close.]

FWIW, I made the replay 2022-05-01 04.40.21 {1 - non-TA possible play @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame during a night when I had a headache and slight light-headedness from the stale air caused by keeping my windows closed for many hours due to there being lots of nasty campfire smoke outside. When having played the TRLs with GonZaLO earlier that morning, however, I was in reasonably good condition breathing fresh air (and I make a point of only playing ranked games in those conditions). So this replay (and the whole session in which I analyzed it a bit further) doesn't really represent my best mental effort.
The probability of the Armageddon in that replay (done at 23:08.46) resulting a win for blue was about 13.8%, with a 11.5% chance of a draw. If blue delayed using it until a later turn, or took better previous turns, the probability would increase.

Senator, thanks for doing your tests. Here are the approximate probabilities of the Armageddons you did winning the game for blue:
23.0% blue win (9.65% draw) at 3:00.34 in 2022-05-01 11.56.33 [Offline Round 2] DC vs GonZaLO 1.WAgame
17.5% blue win (11.5% draw) at 3:51.08 in 2022-05-01 12.04.51 [Offline Round 2] DC vs GonZaLO 2.WAgame
11.3% blue win (5.34% draw) at 4:10.80 in 2022-05-01 12.10.46 [Offline Round 2] DC vs GonZaLO 3.WAgame - better than in my previous posted replay
22.5% blue win (4.89% draw) at 3:18.94 in 2022-05-01 12.25.02 [Offline] DC vs GonZaLO 4.WAgame
This seems to show that probably only the plays in your third replay were potentially more optimal for red. There is also the possibility in the first replay for blue to delay using the Armageddon, potentially increasing the chance of it working, by roping over and Girder-blocking the other worm.

But these were not a true continuation of the game but rather an approximated mockup. The presence of crates, oildrums, etc., changes things. I recreated your third replay (with a slight modification – my worm on the left places a Girder instead of just skipping go). Note that you were off by a turn of SD (as well as other differences).
20.6% blue win (11.5% draw) at 21:48.48 in [attachment=2] So, apparently it was less optimal play than mine. (Note that the Armageddon in this replay file shows a win for blue, i.e. the thing with a 20.6% chance happened, which contradicts GonZaLO's claim that I'd never post a replay where he wins.)

Anyway, I've now analyzed this endgame in depth. Here is the optimized play I came up with:
[attachment=1] There were four opportunities to use the Armageddon. The approximate probabilities of that resulting in a win for blue:
0.92% blue win (0.13% draw) at 20:01.62
0.58% blue win (0.00% draw) at 20:45.80
1.65% blue win (0.05% draw) at 21:50.16
15.4% blue win (6.38% draw) at 22:55.62 (last and best chance)
Here is a replay of the 15.4% chance happening (a win for blue): [attachment=3]
This is indeed more optimal for red than my original replay. Blue could have done some better moves in my original replay, resulting in a 21.4% chance of winning (8.03% chance of a draw) from Armageddon: [attachment=4] So I guess Senator's is marginally better at 20.6% (but still worse than the 15.4%).

On the other hand, red could have done some better turns too in a variation of my original replay, especially with some decent wind – here is a scenario even more optimal for red than the above (assuming blue can't do something much better under these circumstances):
[attachment=5] 5.98% blue win (0.09% draw) at 19:54.96
4.59% blue win (0.09% draw) at 20:41.70
2.78% blue win (0.22% draw) at 22:19.30
5.09% blue win (1.20% draw) at 22:49.86
8.25% blue win (7.00% draw) at 24:07.66 - the replay file shows this 8.25% chance win for blue happening
12.1% blue win (3.66% draw) at 24:07.66 - if traversing to the left side (wind allowing) to use the Armageddon: 2022-05-03 18.57.38 {possible endgame @ 12m53s} 2022-04-30 23.52.02 [Online Round 2] @Deadcode, GonZaLO.WAgame


I'm guessing, from GonZaLO's tone, that he may think I tend to make gameplay choices that he considers so dumb he'd never make them himself. But if so, he is seeing that through the lens of his own playing style, ignoring that I probably make many other types of decisions, and types of moves, better than he would. It likely balances out much more than he apparently thinks, but I guess we'll never know because GonZaLO refuses to play a statistically sound number of games with me, choosing instead to rest on his laurels that are quite possibly just a result of being lucky.

And for that matter, we may never know how good he really is when playing against other players, because he has the unfair advantage of disconnecting often, not only voiding those games but concealing them from the public by reporting only the non-disconnected replays. Even if he upgrades to a better ISP, it would take asking each player individually to see if he's really stopped having lots of disconnections, because he refuses to let his disconnected games be a matter of public record. (Adding recovery-from-disconnection to WA would of course fix this, but that will be too late for the bulk of this season of TRL T17, and possibly too late even for the playoffs.)

I forgot to include the voided disconnected game that preceded this game: